Major Championship golf returns for the first time since Shane Lowry lifted the Claret Jug at Royal Portrush thirteen months ago.
This year’s PGA Championship is at TPC Harding Park in San Francisco, California. The last major event that was held at this golf course was in 2009 for the Presidents Cup in which Team USA beat the Internationals 19.5-14.5.
There are a lot of unknowns about this golf course, but from the coverage so far this week it looks like the rough is long and weather is going to play a big factor.
With that in mind, here are five guys to keep an eye on this week at Harding Park:
Brooks Koepka:
Four-time Major Champion and Two-time defending PGA Champion Brooks Koepka should have a big advantage this week. He should have a big advantage because he is one of the longest hitters on tour. Koepka is in the top-20 of both Driving Distance and Strokes Gained off the Tee this year on tour. With a course that is only 7,000 yards but could play upwards of 8,000 yards due to weather conditions, you need to be able to get off the tee with distance to have any shot this week. That’s why I like Koepka.
Where he could struggle is his driving accuracy and his Strokes Gained Putting. This year he is only hitting 54% of all fairways which ranks 185th on Tour this year. He also is ranked 146th in Strokes Gained Putting this year. He has struggled since the restart of the tour season with two finishes outside the Top-30 and two missed cuts. However, Koepka is coming off a Second Place finish at the World Golf Championship in Memphis, so he has some positive momentum going in to this tournament. If Koepka can put the ball in the fairway and make putts, he just might walk away with his third straight PGA Championship.
Next Up: Bryson DeChambeau
The Mad Scientist has been making headlines since the restart began. Since the restart, he has made himself look like the Hulk (It seriously looks like he ate old Bryson), he’s won golf tournaments and blown golf tournaments, he’s gotten into arguments with cameramen and rules officials, and he most recently stated that he thinks he can live to 130 or 140.
All that aside, DeChambeau has been the most entertaining player to watch since the PGA Tour restarted. He can now hit the ball a country mile. Phil Mickelson and his Adonis like calves dream about hitting the types of bombs that Bryson hits. DeChambeau leads the Tour in Driving Distance and Strokes Gained off the Tee. He is also good with the flat stick in his hands as he ranks 6th in Strokes Gained Putting and he is 9th in Strokes Gained from Tee to Green (nice).
Where I don’t like Bryson is that he has had no real success in Major Championships. He’s had flashes of greatness at a place like Augusta National where he’s been able to put together a couple of good rounds, but he has always ended up collapsing down the stretch. He only has one top-15 in Majors and he has six missed cuts. Not to mention that he is a mental midget on the golf course and he is prone to blow ups. If he can control his nerves and stay mentally tough, then Bryson could be holding the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday evening.
Next Up: Justin Thomas
Justin Thomas has been on fire since golf restarted. The new World Number 1 has four top-tens including a win last week in Memphis. Now, Thomas may not drive it as far as guys like Koepka and DeChambeau, but Thomas is deadly with an iron in his hands. He currently leads the tour this year in Strokes Gained on Approach Shots. He also has the ability to go low. He is second in scoring average on tour and third in birdies made per round.
The only reservations I’d have about Thomas this week is the fact that he doesn’t hit a lot of fairways. He ranks 131st in Driving Accuracy this year on Tour. He has a great iron game and short game, but I’m worried that he will eventually put himself in a spot where he won’t be able to scramble his way out of trouble. If he can put himself in good spots then he will be in contention on Sunday afternoon.
Next up: Jon Rahm
Jon Rahm was the World Number 1 for about two weeks until Justin Thomas displaced him after his victory last week. Rahm has some success since the restart with a big win at The Memorial. Outside of that there hasn’t been much to smile about. He has no top-25 finishes outside of his win a couple weeks ago. Rahm is another guy who bombs the golf ball (sensing a pattern here?). He is above average in Driving Distance where he ranks 35th and in Driving Accuracy where he ranks 52nd. Where he stands out is in Strokes Gained off the Tee and he is 6th in that category. Rahm is also a guy, who like JT, can get white hot and go low. He ranks 7th in scoring average and 8th in birdie average.
Most of the trouble I see him having will be due to the six inches between his ears. It has been well documented about how Rahm can’t keep his cool on the course. He has even gone as far as hiring an EOD bomb defuser as his Psychologist. This course is going to play very tough when the weather kicks up, and if he gets one bad break on Thursday, it could set the tone for his week and he could be packing his bags early.
Last but not least: Tiger Woods
Golf Jesus is back baby! Tiger Woods will be teeing it up for the first time since The Memorial on Thursday at 8:33 AM PT on the 10th tee (You bet your ass I’ve already set my alarm). El Tigre has been making the news this week since he has benched his old reliable Scotty Cameron putter that has won 14 of his 15 Majors. He is putting a new Scotty in the bag that is longer and has weights in the bottom of it.
BDE is the only player in this long blog that I’m not going to put any stats for because with Tiger, all numbers go out the window. He could be playing terrible golf and you still couldn’t count him out because he’s TIGER FREAKING WOODS! In the back of your mind you know that he could piece together four great rounds and win the damn thing. He has some history at this course. He beat John Daly here in 2005 and he went 5-0 in the Presidents Cup in 2009. The bottom line is you never, EVER, count out the greatest golfer to ever walk planet earth.
There are three things that need to go Tiger’s way this week. If his back stays limber for four days, he hits fairways, and he makes putts then he will without a doubt win number 16 on Sunday.
My Pick to win: Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy is my pick to win this week for a few reasons. One reason is that he is deadly with the driver in his hands. It is the best club in his bag. He is 4th in Strokes Gained off the Tee and 5th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. Also, he is probably the one guy in the field that can get hotter than Justin Thomas when he gets it going. He leads the Tour in Eagles and he is 3rd in Scoring Average. There are only two Par 5’s at TPC Harding Park and I fully expect him to take advantage of them. He is also very good at working the ball both ways off the tee. There are holes at TPC Harding Park where you have to hit a draw off the tee and other holes that you have to hit fades. Rory is the best in the game at doing just that.
McIlroy has not had a lot of success since the restart. He has only had one top-15 finish, and the rest of the tournaments that he’s played, he hasn’t finished inside of the top-30. Last week wasn’t much better although he ended the week with a 67 so he is trending in the right direction.
McIlroy hasn’t had a lot of success in Major Championships recently either. He had a heartbreak in 2018 when he collapsed on Sunday at Augusta, and he came close at the 2018 Open Championship where he finished tied for second behind Francesco Molinari. Other than that he’s had no other close calls. Sure, he had a couple top-10’s in Majors last year, but he never came close to sniffing the lead.
There is a saying in baseball where if a guy is slumping you say that “He’s due.” Eventually he will break out of his slump and go on a tear. I think that Rory is due. He’s gonna break out of his slump and win the Wanamaker Trophy for a third time.
When he does win on Sunday, Rory is going to get on a big roll. So the rest of the Tour better watch out because they’ll be standing on the tracks while the train is coming through.